🔗 Share this article

Two days to go.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|